>>... we know that Russia has shot its bolt and it will lose.
We don't *know* that. It's getting to be a more probable outcome, but there are no certainties.
Also, there *are* some capable Rus officers. I think the withdrawal from Kherson with such little loss is going to be studied for years. And the 'Surovkin line' is currently making things very difficult for Ukraine, in spite of western tanks and IFVs.
Yes, their system makes enlisted-with-power (NCOs) an impossibility, but they have been competent when whatever they're doing is officer heavy (e.g. that withdrawal, building minefields).
All this IMHO, of course (and I've zero military background, don't even have an armchair to be pretend-general from) :-)