To be as fair as possible, Russia's recent default wasn't because they didn't have the funds or were unwilling to pay. Being shut off from SWIFT meant that they were blocked from the channel of payment.

Bringing this up because a country defaulting in its debts usually indicates that it's either unable to produce the funds or had internal issues that it absolutely had to prioritize over debt repayment.

I'm not sure any of this matters as the RF is as cut off from international lending via the current sanctions as it would be from a default. I do however expect it will make US funds less available to international borrowers in general (particularly non-allies) as the US is making it clear to those potential lenders that if their borrowers become bad actors, the US might make sure their repayment happens - and it might not. This is a major change, and as I see it, a crack in the international finance system that grew up around the Bretton Woods Accords (AKA international order, AKA globalism).

Just a thought...