Thinking about it, what happens to China when they face the same sanctions as are currently imposed on Russia, when the few manufacturers still producing subassemblies there (many are moving now due to zero-covid) move their remaining facilities away, and US/UK maritime insurance agencies refuse to cover anything carrying Chinese freight? Yes, China has a single aircraft carrier with similar launch capabilities to the US ones (along with a couple of lesser ones) - but it does not appear to be nuclear powered, so it lacks the 'legs' needed for freight (particularly oil) overwatch. Oil import's going to be critical for China; the Persian Gulf is far away - and Russia's warm water port, which can't handle supertankers, even farther.

Meanwhile, China's inflationary bubble (based essentially on land theft and a pay-before-construction system (see McMahon's "China's Great Wall of Debt") is in process of bursting. Mortgage holders on undelivered/stalled construction apartments are starting to refuse to pay en masse. Anything that makes the economy worse is going to put the CCP control in a precarious position.

I'd expect a lot of saber-rattling from the Chinese, and military groups in close contact makes it more likely that both sides make mistakes leading to an actual engagement, but as I see it, that's the risk, not China launching an invasion across the Taiwan strait. (trivia: that new carrier is named for the province on the mainland side of the strait.)