Bob Koure
2 min readApr 7, 2023

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>>The Japanese decision to attack Pearl Harbor ended disastrously for them.

It didn't have to go that way. Pearl was a way of removing the US Pacific Fleet from the chessboard, allowing them to conquer places much closer to Japan fairly quickly, getting it over before the 'sleeping giant' woke up. I suspect their failure came after the Dolittle Raid, when they expanded the area they needed to control in order to protect the Home Islands from another raid. Once they overextended (and extended the duration of the conflict) it became Japanese industrial output vs that of the US - and the rest is, as they say, history.

That said, the primary advantage China gains from hypersonic anti-ship missiles is that it makes it difficult for the US to respond to an assault on Taiwan with carrier groups. The obvious counter move is to help Taiwan arm itself even more, possibly going as far as nukes (without acknowledging it, similar to the US arming Israel - even now it's unclear what happened). For all I know (and more importantly, for all the CCP knows) this has already happened. Taiwan has been putting resources into making an invasion from the mainland as expensive as possible for the invaders since the 60s.

On top of that, China is in no position to invade Taiwan. Their economy is crashing - from multiple factors (primarily a Ponzi land-theft scheme from local govts) the but the US and EU buying less are certainly part of that. An attack would bring sanctions which they cannot withstand right now.

Also, China is a net energy importer. Most of that comes from the Persian Gulf, a very long supply route. There are multiple places cargo ships can be intercepted - would vessel owners even be willing to risk their ships?

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Bob Koure
Bob Koure

Written by Bob Koure

Retired software architect, statistical analyst, hotel mgr, bike racer, distance swimmer. Photographer. Amateur historian. Avid reader. Home cook. Never-FBer

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