>>The front-line countries are ready and expect war.

Peter Zeihan has had some interesting things to say about this, mostly around The Rus traditionally needing physical geography they can defend with stationary armies (stationary due to their also-traditionally poor logistics). That geography is all on the *other* side of Ukraine.

>>We could see Wagner move to Poland or try to secure the Suwałki Gap

It’s worth remembering that Wagner forces surrendered everything larger than sidearms and personal arms. The Suwalki has been of concern since the USSR collapsed; I’d expect there to be Polish armor either already there, of staged further back but capable of moving forward on short notice.

I see the Wagner ‘revolt’ as a way to get out of the Ukraine fight as it was much too expensive, and get back to exploiting African nations, with a very small possibility of Prigozhin having taken posession of a Rus battlefield nuke — which he’s using to blackmail Putin (note he has yet to be defenestrated).