The folks at fivethirtyeight had to deal with readers not understanding / misunderstanding what probability numbers meant. Their solution: ‘NN chances in a hundred’, which readers seemed to have a better ability to understand.

Given that you’re a math teacher, what approach works best with your kids?

FWIW, my first introduction to statistics was a book I found in 6th or 7th grade: How To Lie With Statistics. I loved that book. It went directly to my early-teen boy desire to get away with something. Looks like it’s still in print. Give it a look, it might be useful as teaching material.

All that said, there are a lot of projections and curves that rely on the assumption that someone who once had COVID19 won’t get it again. This is probably (see what I did there?) a good assumption, but it is currently an assumption — there are no results to back that up.