Bob Koure
2 min readDec 9, 2022

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>>The armed forces of Ukraine used Soviet-made drones

I'm not at all clear that that's what they used. It's worth remembering that most of the USSR's aerospace industry had been in the Ukranian SSR.

Those Bayraktar drones? Currently manufactured in Turkey but designed by both Turkey and Ukraine. Back during the USSR, cruise missile motors were built in the Ukranian SSR. Also, AFAICT, the inertial guidance systems, and other avionics. My guess is that the Ukrainians have the technical chops to design a drone that can do this — and probably have manufacturing to match.

So, it's at least worth keeping open the possibility that they didn't just take out the recon gear from an old Sov drone, put some explosives in and maybe relied on a spec ops teams laser painting targets.

Although, if I was them, and they did this via inertial guidance, I'd be dropping hints that it was multiple teams at multiple targets, send the Russians on a snipe hunt.

I suspect the reason the drones weren’t intercepted was poor training, but it could have been poor maintenance over the years. I’m pretty sure all their ABM rockets had/have solid propellant, and that’s pretty stable over time.

So… why not target the Kerch bridge? It doesn’t look like the drones they’ve been using carry enough explosive to bring down a span, let alone a pier. The airport tarmac was scorched but not cratered. But I’m expecting some ‘interesting’ targets to be hit. Notably refineries and pipeline junctions. Russia’s northern wells are in permafrost. If the oil doesn’t flow, the oil gels and the water in the oil freezes and expands. If there’s a high enough percentage of water, things break from expansion. It would be Ukraine’s way of saying “OK, you can freeze, too.” and would reduce a source of revenue.

Just thinking aloud…

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Bob Koure
Bob Koure

Written by Bob Koure

Retired software architect, statistical analyst, hotel mgr, bike racer, distance swimmer. Photographer. Amateur historian. Avid reader. Home cook. Never-FBer

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