Speaking of that passenger plane, Igor Girkin was recently convicted in absentia.
That said, the key to Crimea, to the entire southern front, is the rail portion of the Kerch bridge. Russia's logistics aren't all that great - and most of what they do have moves by rail.
BTW, it's 205 miles from Kherson to Kerch as the HIMARS flies - and the max distance ones (that Ukraine doesn't (yet?) have) is 186 miles. Just thinking aloud here...