Speaking of 5-D chess, what happens if the West did not actually release distance restrictions - but the Ukranians (or someone else) 'leaks' to the press that they have done so? How many resources will the Russians expend to protect sites unnecessarily? What happens when air defenses are on a hair trigger? Do they shoot down a number of their own 'frendlies'?
I'm not saying that that's what happened, just wondering aloud...