>>Neither source is credible for conventional journalism, but this is a blog and my hunch is I am being told the truth.

I've recently read that, in spite of Western intel giving Ukraine near-real-time information feeds (e.g. general X now at this location) the information flow is one-way. Ukraine is not telling the west what they plan, how things are going on particular fronts.

So they, like you, are operating on hunches based on what they can observe/intercept.

This is not good.

Consider what happens if there's a reversal on the line the west had no clue was coming. Best case, they complain and let it go. Worst case short term, western intelligence agencies get discredited. Long term, it reduces popular support for the money being spent (and it is a significant bit) which is then reflected in elections in those western countries.

All because intelligence agencies got blindsided, were incapable of providing warning to their administrations so the pols couldn't prepare.