My personal theory centers on the SVR (what used to be the KGB).

It goes like this: Corruption is a way of life in Russia. How is an SVR agent to get on top of a money flow so he can skim some off? ‘Run’ partisan pro-Russian groups in Ukraine, send money to them. Better yet, pretend to ‘run’ imaginary partisan groups — no need to skim, just take everything.

So, Putin thought he could take over the country in a couple of days because there were loads of partisan groups ready to take up arms for mother Russia. Only they didn’t exist anywhere but in the paybooks of those agents.

This explains why those Russian paratroopers jumped into the airport near Kiev — they thought they had backup.

I’ve no evidence other than wondering why a number of SVU agents were fired right after the invasion started — and the top SVU guy for sent to a prison famous for bad prisoner treatment.