It's obvious that an ongoing 'Afghanistan' will drain the RF. But if you look at their demographics, they already lack the 18-30 year-olds needed to fill an army with conscripts. Could they learn to fight smarter with a professional army? Possibly, but I see absolutely no signs of that happening.

Russia's in this vast flat land with almost no barriers to an invading land force. So it makes sense they're paranoid about that (major reason the USSR took control of the Warsaw Pact nations was to control places where their army could block an invasion).

They're nuclear now. It'll take a generation tor future Russians to learn that that's enough to prevent invasion, but I also expect the RF to be fractured by then. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are meddling in places like Chechnya and Dagestan now. I'm sure they see an opportunity now. There isn't a need for a Ukranian war to keep them occupied - just A war (or special military operation)