Bob Koure
3 min readJul 9, 2022

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It's all about grievance - and making the perceived cause of that grievance "cry".

In some ways, it's legitimate grievance. For instance, when the US opened up its consumer markets (shorthanded as "Bretton Woods Accords") to allies in 44, then to defeated enemies in 45-6, then to China in (65?) there were bound to be winners and losers. Major winners: Asian Tigers, with China at the top of the list. Major losers: American manufacture (AKA the Steel Belt, now the Rust Belt) and British manufacture (primarily canalled England). The US also undertook to guarantee the safety of any blue water international trade with its Navy/Marines. Not an insignificant cost (just look at our military budget) and a major drag on the US economy.

This was all on purpose - in order to isolate the USSR and its sphere of influence. Nixon bringing China into the 'global' (really Bretton Woods) order to peel it away from the USSR worked spectacularly.

It worked, but we're continuing to support it, continuing to keep our markets open - even though the USSR collapsed in the 90s. If you're wondering why there wasn't an 'end of Cold War bonus', yeah, it's that.

There were reasons for the US to continue to shoulder the global order, notably keeping petro flowing from the Persian Gulf. But the US is energy independent now (shale oil), and predictions are that this will continue through the 40s. I have reasons to believe that that's overoptimistic, but it seems solid through the 30s.

OK, back to the Trumpies. Their prospects, in a word, suck. This comes straight out of the above-mentioned support for the global order. They're probably not aware of why (I didn't twig up until somewhat recently - and I read a lot of history, am absurdly well educated) but they're certainly aware of diminishing prospects, disappearing opportunities - and both political parties have shown themselves incapable of fixing that (high tech jobs for coal miners anyone?). So, they're pissed - at everybody - shorthanded as 'liberals'. They see Trump as a bomb-thrower who'll blow everything up. That's what they want.

Aaaand, even though admitting China to the global order, opening our markets to them made a lot of sense at the time, and their ability to mobilize dirt-cheap labor into manufacturing (plus cheap trans-oceanic shipping — thanks to the order), it’s been turning into a disaster for the US. China has a very different approach to money/credit: it’s all about keeping as many people employed as possible for their own political stability. The way provincial government is rewarded makes that everyone-employed model move into “produce as much stuff as possible, whether we need it or not”. “Ghost Cities” are a symptom of that. So… they’re severely overextended money/credit-wise, and have more stuff than they can possibly use. Also super-cheap shipping to the rest of the world. So push all that excess stuff off to other markets at below the cost to produce — what we in the US would consider ‘dumping’ if a domestic producer was doing it (and it has happened in the past, notably Standard Oil). If you’ve ever wondered why Trump keeps saying “Chyna!”, it’s because of all the manufacturing downsizing. People who lost jobs are (IMO not unreasonably) pissed.

Disclaimer: I’m a “liberal” globalist, but I do think things need to move back into balance — and it does seem to be happening. Downside worst case: a billion-ish or more people starve (longer story than makes sense in a response — go read Peter Zeihan for the reasoning).

Sorry about going on so long — this has been percolating in my head for a bit and I needed to ‘vent’.

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Bob Koure
Bob Koure

Written by Bob Koure

Retired software architect, statistical analyst, hotel mgr, bike racer, distance swimmer. Photographer. Amateur historian. Avid reader. Home cook. Never-FBer

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