It's about to get a lot worse for Russia. M777 howitzers with rocket-assist projectiles gives them considerably more range than Russian/ex-Soviet equipment. At a minimum this means pockets of RF forces are about to be cut off.

Add in the possibility of guided projectiles (something the US is being hush-hush about) and the range goes to nearly 40km and the error-circle goes down (even at that range) to under 4m.

And the kicker: the US is sharing intelligence (both satellite and signals) with the Ukrainians in real time.

So sig-int. I think it's beyond unlikely that Gerasimov was using non-encrypted communications. But I do think that US intelligence knew where he was within a km or so. Add in sat-int, and they know the encampment or building he's most probably in, meaning the Ukrainians also know.

I'm expecting a series of decapitation strikes which, given their hierarchical structure (which you've explained well), will make it impossible to attack and damn near impossible to withdraw in good order. A potential rout.

The real question is... what does Putin do then?

This new meatgrinder gives him a place to send officers who are not completely loyal to get killed, which will help him stay in power - but it also might remove anyone who would stand between him and using a nuke.

Not a military guy, not even an armchair one. Just somebody who's read a lot of history — and is trying to keep up with geopolitics