Influenza: R0 of about 1.3, mortality around 0.1%

2019nCOV: R0 of about 2.3, mortality around 2.2%

Yes, they all sound like small numbers, but the R0 is the real kicker.

Not sure how to understand R0? Grab a spreadsheet, start with, say, 1, in one cell, make the cell to the right 1.3 times that one with a formula. Copy the formula across the row. Do the same in another row, but use 2.3. See how the numbers for 2.3 are ridiculously higher than those using 1.3?

Then, with that absurdly much larger number of infected people, twenty two times as many will die as with flu.

Aaand… it gets worse. If we get more critically ill people than there are resources, that ‘surplus’ will die. That’s what happened in Hubei: death rate went to 3.4% (and doctors were faced with figuring out who to spend resources on, who to let die). Trying to avoid this last bit is what all the shutdowns are about.