I'd agree that it's near impossible for those of us not in the intelligence community to have a good idea of what's going on (and even the intelligence folks don't really know - they just have a notion of how uncertain their information is — which comes from knowing the sourcing).

That said, there are videos of Ukrainians getting away with crazy stuff. I'd ascribe that to their being amateurs (and so unpredictable). But remember, there are no videos of them trying and failing - because they didn't live to make an upload. I would guess that the latter outnumbers the former as amateurs are also really good at dying - but we won't know until it's all over, and maybe not even then.