>>I have long since given up guessing about Zaluzhny’s timelines.
Same here. The troops have been training in NATO-standard tactics, but those presuppose air superiority - which they very much *don’t* have, so he’s on to some hybrid of NATO (initiative at lower levels, save troops over equipment) and old-Soviet (artillery saturation) tactics - but with the longer 'reach' of the weapons he now can use.
I suspect the timeline is more dependent on the Rus, when and where they commit all their reserves and so lose mobility of forces (seems to be happening now) and when and where they crumble - and if that offers enough opportunity. I’d guess he’d be more likely to take an opportunity to the South than East.
No military experience here, just thinking it through...