I had started out wondering if the scale of the Hamas attack was beyond what the planners had intended - after all, why would there be reports of Iran and Russia having been taken by surprise? An expectedly-small raid for hostages gotten out of control due to lack of effective response from the IDF might explain that.

Turns out I was wrong (not a new thing for me). There was an article in WaPo detailing what's now known, based on maps found on deceased attackers and interrogation of a few who had been captured: Hamas envisioned deeper attacks, aiming to provoke an Israeli war. It’s behind a paywall, but I think if you sign up for a free account you get some number of free articles per month. This might be the one to read.

That said, given the carnage ongoing in Gaza — and the potential terrorists being created, Israel has to choose between obliterating the Palestinian people, or somehow coming up with an equitable solution — which does not mean keeping the Palestinian people behind walls. The Likud government promoted Hamas both as a way of keeping the Palestinians disunited (PA/Fatah vs Hamas) and as a way to claim that there’s no single Palestinian party they can negotiate with. That strategy has failed badly.

I’m hoping the failure leads to a less right-wing government, or at least one willing to rein in settlers, take attacks on mosques more seriously (basically treat Palestinians as humans with rights). But it’s the Middle East, I expect to be disappointed.