>>...hitting them [refineries] will not affect the price of crude oil, only the availability of refined fuels within Russia.
This is exactly why I'm a bit skeptical of the "US tells Ukraine to not hit refineries".
Not saying it's definitely not happening - I'm not in any kind of position to know - but it just doesn't make a lot of sense, particularly when the rationale is that it might spike oil prices in the US and so affect the 2024 elections. The US is a net petro exporter and has more than enough refining capacity.