Bob Koure
2 min readOct 23, 2024

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>>...and can import manufactured components from countries like China.
There's not a lot of doubt around this going on. One difference between China and Russia is that China is highly dependent on both inports (energy, raw materials, food) and exports (manufactured goods).
I have to wonder what might happen if that trade in 'manufactured components' becomes so blatant that the US and Europe feel they have no choice but to sanction China. Might that trigger a 'go for broke' reaction that involves an invasion of Taiwan?
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is going through a major implosion. The only thing that seems to be keeping it from collapsing is that Chinese mortgage buyers cannot surrender collateral and walk away from the debt - post surrender they are still liable for the debt - and people can't get their savings out of banks. I'd expect there's a massive amount of discontent with the CCP - which is desperate to maintain control and they might view a war as just the thing to distract the populace.
That said, might the CCP instead target a country much weaker than Taiwan - that's also holding territory the Chinese see as rightfully part of China? I'm thinking the far-Eastern parts of Siberia that the Russian empire gained by what the Chinese have been calling 'unequal treaty' - particularly Vladivostok - which would get them outside the first island chain. The area is poorly defended as the RF has been draining troops and military resources there to support their attack on Ukraine.
Other than NK, I can think of no nation that might come to the RF's aid if that should happen.

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Bob Koure
Bob Koure

Written by Bob Koure

Retired software architect, statistical analyst, hotel mgr, bike racer, distance swimmer. Photographer. Amateur historian. Avid reader. Home cook. Never-FBer

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