A lot of this comes down to what Joe Manchin does when he can't get ten Republican senators to vote for the modified version he's been working on with both dems and repubs. He's been upholding the filibuster rule as he's convinced he can find ten Rs. Will he be ready to ditch it if he can't (or at least support a carve-out). McTurtle has been promising that no R will vote for the bill, and like him or not, he's pretty good at vote-counting.